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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/17 11:04

   Grains Higher at Midday

   Wheat and soybeans lead firm trade at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are flat to higher with the Dow up 10. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 25 points higher. 
Energies are mixed with crude down 0.55. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $10.70.


   Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade trying to build some 
positive momentum into midweek with a small gap higher overnight. Cooler 
weather looks to hang around the next couple weeks with mixed moisture 
potential with a growing focus on early August weather with the advanced state 
of the crop. Ethanol board margins remain positive with some pressure from 
crude with ethanol futures edging higher to narrow blender margins with the 
energy weakness and firmer ethanol futures again overnight. Corn basis has been 
flat to firmer for the most part. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 
conditions down 3 percentage points at 72% good to excellent, and 9% poor to 
very poor. Silking was 63% complete vs. 37% on average. On the September chart, 
we are right at the 10-day at $3.48, with the 20-day at $3.54 the next round 
up. Support is the fresh low of $3.37 scored last week with the lower Bollinger 
Band at $3.38 above that. 


   Soybean trade is 8 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade fighting off 
attempts to break lower this morning with trade looking for two strong finishes 
in a row. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Brazil 
remains at a stout premium to U.S. origin, which is compounded by the ongoing 
logistics issues with Brazil with premiums around $2.05. Bean basis has 
remained steady with processors taking the lead with record crush again for the 
month of June, even if it was slightly below expectations. The daily export 
wire has remained quiet. Weather shouldn't be a major driver near term for 
soybeans, but pod fill will be here soon. Weekly crop progress showed 
conditions down 2 percentage points at 69% good to excellent, and 9% poor to 
very poor, with 65% blooming vs. 45% on average, and 26% setting pods vs. 11% 
on average. On the August chart, the 10-day is at $8.43 is again the first 
level of resistance, which we are still below even with the strength today with 
further support the lower Bollinger Band at $8.11 with the next level 
resistance the 20-day at $8.60.


   Wheat trade is 6 to 12 cents higher with trade regaining the Monday losses 
this morning. Winter wheats are leading. Harvest pressure should start to fade 
as it winds down for the winter wheat. Spring wheat should see good progress in 
Canada with drier weather showing up again for some. Russian harvest continues 
to move along, as well, with yields remaining below last year's levels. HRW 
basis has remained solid through harvest with the better protein with offered 
premiums declining. Weekly crop progress had winter wheat at 74% complete vs. 
71% on average, with spring wheat at 80% good to excellent, and 4% poor to very 
poor, unchanged on the week with 91% headed vs. 85% on average. On the 
September, KC is just above the 20-day at $4.90 and the 10-day at $4.92 at 
midday with the 200-day at $5.11 the next level of resistance.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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